3 obstacles that could slow down the global solar energy boom
For years now, the price of solar has plummeted, and it is now the cheapest form of new electricity generation in many markets, including 16 U.S. states, Spain, Italy and India, according to energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. Even during the pandemic, solar power development remained strong.
By 2020, global solar capacity installation exceeded 115 gigawatts (GW). And even as solar panel prices rose last year, the cost of solar managed to fall in 2021. However, while the expansion of solar power has been increasing in line with its increasingly competitive prices, it has not been fast or serious enough to match the growth trajectory needed to meet the decarbonization targets set by the Paris Agreement in 2015.
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The law of inertia
The renewables revolution has encountered the enormous and seemingly immovable force of inertia.
In addition to opposition from powerful fossil fuel lobbyists and their allies, the current energy system and all investment is based on fossil fuels, and continuing to operate a coal or gas plant is often cheaper than building new solar infrastructure, however cheap that new infrastructure may be. Although we have already seen as study by Rystad Energy claim that gas plants in Europe will be 10 times more expensive than solar.
In addition, “there’s a lot of inertia in the system because of long-term contracts between utilities, power producers and mining companies,” Popular Science reported last year. “And since the country’s total energy use doesn’t increase much each year, there’s not much incentive to build new renewables.”
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The double whammy of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have sent the global economy reeling sending energy markets spiraling into disarray and scrambling to find alternatives to Russian exports to keep the lights on and restore energy security. And many have set their sights on solar power to do just that.
In Europe, 18 of the 27 European Union countries set new records for solar power generation between May and August this year, and the bloc is on track to see an average annual increase of between 45GW and 52GW through 2030, a massive increase compared to pre-invasion projections.
In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act has offered huge tax breaks for clean energy development and investment in solar is already soaring in response.
The consulting firm McKinsey projects that global renewable electricity capacity will nearly triple between 2021 and 2030, reaching more than 8,800 gigawatts. Most of this figure will come from onshore wind and solar.
The 3 obstacles that can hold solar power back
Although the incentives and investments are there, the renewables revolution faces three major obstacles as it continues to expand at breakneck speed.
1. Land, the technology’s biggest problem
Land may be the biggest of these problems. “Solar and wind farms require at least ten times more space per unit of energy than coal- or natural gas-fired power plants, including the land used to produce and transport fossil fuels,” Mckenzie reports in a warning to solar investors.
Indeed, the expansion of renewables is already embroiled in land-use battles across the country, as projects are developed in rural states that are often deeply devoted to fossil fuels.
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2. Permitting is a nightmare
According to McKinsey, expansion is also hampered by “lengthy and unpredictable development guidelines” that are beyond the control of developers. Permitting is a nightmare, as legislation changes, often based on popular outrage that arises in response to land use issues.
As a result, permits for utility-scale solar and wind farms can take up to ten years. For example, in the United States, 31 states have already passed ordinances restricting the expansion of renewables.
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3. Grids are not smart or flexible enough
Finally, increasing grid congestion poses a major threat. The energy grid infrastructure, in the case of the United States, is aging and will need huge infrastructure investments to catch up.
