Only 9 years left to save the climate
Beyond the trail of new commitments and the avalanche of reports that all climate summits usually leave behind, COP27 has so far left two particularly striking headlines, even if they seem to contradict each other. There are two pieces of news: one good and the other bad. The bad news is that the planet has only 9 years left to save the climate by really accelerating emissions cuts if it does not want to exceed the ‘extra’ warming of 1.5ºC by that date, which, in theory, should not be reached until 2100. The good news is that, in spite of everything, three of the world’s major polluters (China, India and Europe) are moving towards decarbonization faster than expected.
The report released during the summit by the Global Carbon Project, a world-renowned panel of more than 100 scientists studying the impact of carbon on the global climate, gave a clear picture of where things stand. In short, according to this study, there is a 50% chance that the fateful figure of 1.5ºC of warming with respect to the pre-industrial era will be exceeded in 9 years. That horizon was set for 2100, but not for the next decade, which only makes the forecasts much worse.
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The fact that there is half a chance that this rise will be so far ahead is practically playing Russian roulette, conclude the experts, who are committed to taking “radical and immediate” action to avoid being caught by the bullet in this fateful game.
Emissions increase in 2022
In fact, the latest data on global warming are not exactly in the planet’s favor. In 2021, emissions rebounded after the pandemic hiatus, and there was great expectation to know what would happen in 2022. Well, estimates from the Global Carbon Project suggest that this year will end with a further rise in CO2 emissions, specifically by 1% compared to 2021. It may not sound like much, but when immediate and drastic reductions are expected, any increase is tantamount to a defeat.
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The culprit for this increase in 2022 is the boom in the use of oil (its emissions are up by 2.2%) and coal (1%), because those caused by gas are down by 0.2% and those derived from the use of cement, by 1.6%. All the experts agree that the upturn in aviation following the pandemic is one of the main factors responsible for this 1% global increase in emissions in 2022.
How do we know that we have nine years to go to reach the 1.5°C rise? Fundamentally, the Global Carbon Project takes into account the number of gigatons of CO2 released into the atmosphere annually. Given that humanity will reach the 1.5ºC warming as soon as another 380 gigatons of CO2 are released and 40.6 will have been emitted in 2022 alone, it is easy to calculate when this ‘reserve’ of carbon dioxide that can still be released before reaching the fateful limit established by the Paris Agreement will be exhausted.
Mission almost impossible
The authors of the report consider it unlikely that emissions can be curbed to the required extent in such a short time frame. In fact, to reach 2100 with a warming of ‘only’ 1.5°C would require declines every year until then similar to those recorded during the Covid pandemic in 2020.
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“We don’t have green growth once Covid is over. We still have an increase fueled by the use of fossil fuels,” notes Global Carbon Project member Philippe Ciais.
For his part, the executive director of the Global Carbon Project and Chief Researcher at the CSIRO Climate Science Center in Canberra (Australia), Pep Canadell, was quite clear in a recent meeting with journalists: the world is heading for 2.4ºC warming by the end of the century. The difference between 1.5ºC and 2.4ºC could be abysmal, according to all scientific studies, which paint a really bleak picture in the second scenario. And yet it already seems the most likely.
If carbon emissions into the atmosphere continue at the current rate over the next four or five years, the planet will exceed 2ºC. “We are heading straight for this scenario, even more than 2.4ºC,” he said. And he added that current extreme weather events already anticipate the future: “Climate extremes now go beyond what we had thought. Perhaps we have not imagined well what a world with 2ºC in excess will be like,” warned Canadell.
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Some glimmers of hope
But isn’t there positive news to hold on to? There is. On the one hand, the increase in emissions has not stopped, but it is slowing down. While during the 2000s it was rising at an annual rate of 3%, in the last decade it has only been rising at 0.5%. Moreover, three of the major CO2 emitters, China, India and Europe, are on track to reach their decarbonization targets earlier than initially planned in their national targets.
Another report, this one released by The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) and which coincides with other similar reports, details that China is giving an impressive boost to clean energies, so that emissions will fall by 0.9% in 2022. However, there are other factors involved, such as the slowdown in its economy and the high rate of reforestation being carried out by the Asian giant.
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In India, too, renewables are witnessing a phenomenal take-off. And, although this country is still highly dependent on coal (Indian emissions in 2022 are 6% higher than in 2021), it is expected that within this same decade we will see reductions of such a caliber that they will turn the tables, leaving coal as marginal compared to renewables.
The third industrial power with significant reductions, the European Union, will see its emissions fall by 0.8% in 2022, mainly due to the 10% drop in gas emissions, linked to the war in Ukraine.
In the United States, however, they will rise by 1.5%, driven by the increase in gas consumption, used to get rid of coal. But the US is now second only to China in terms of investment in solar and wind energy, to the point that by 2030 it will generate 85% of its energy from renewables.
The ECIU report considers that “rapid price reductions mean that wind and solar energy are now much cheaper than fossil fuels”, a fact that encourages many governments and investors to row in that direction.
“The time window is narrowing.”
However, despite these glimmers of hope, experts stress that “the time window is narrowing.” Promising hopes or commitments for the future are no longer enough, but concrete, immediate and far-reaching measures must be taken.
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Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced its forecast that fossil fuels will reach their peak consumption in 2030, after which they will begin to decline and be replaced by renewables. But the disappearance of hydrocarbons will not be abrupt and sudden, but rather a slow and gradual reduction, which will still cause a large volume of emissions into the atmosphere for many years to come.
Hence, the overall view of the situation casts more shadows than light on the future of humanity in the medium term.
Source: https://www.informacion.es/medio-ambiente/2022/11/17/alerta-cientifica-quedan-9-anos-78668205.html
