The world is falling short of meeting climate goals. There are 4 major culprits.
Seven years after the Paris Agreement, in which leaders pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst effects of climate change, the world is still not on track to meet those goals.
New data released by Climate Action Tracker, an independent research group, ahead of this week’s United Nations climate change summit reveals the gap.
None of the world’s largest emitters – China, the United States, the European Union and India – have reduced their emissions enough to meet the Paris Agreement targets.
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Together, the three countries and the European bloc account for more than half of historical emissions of planet-warming gases, which include carbon dioxide and methane.
The United States is the largest historical emitter and China is the largest current emitter.
Their policies have a huge impact on the future of the Earth’s climate.
The outlook for how much the world is expected to warm has improved as governments have adopted policies to reduce emissions and renewable energy has increased.
But it has not been enough to guide the world toward the future envisioned by the Paris Agreement, which sought to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius and make a good-faith effort to stay at 1.5 degrees.
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The trajectories of the four largest emitters reveal both progress toward emissions reductions and major challenges ahead.
China
Over the past two decades, China’s emissions have soared as the country has developed economically at a breakneck pace.
Mainly due to its reliance on coal, one of the highest emitting fuels, China now accounts for nearly one-third of all man-made greenhouse gases, more than the United States, Europe and Japan combined.
But China also has the world’s largest renewable energy projects.
The country now produces and uses the vast majority of the world’s wind turbines and solar panels.
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It is the world leader in hydropower and continues to expand its already large nuclear power capacity.
According to projections by Climate Action Tracker and other monitoring organizations, China’s emissions are peaking, years before the Chinese government pledged to reach that target.
Analyses show China’s emissions rate neither growing nor declining between now and 2025, before gradually declining.
China’s peak will occur at a much lower per capita emissions level than countries such as the United States.
However, because China’s emissions are so high, no other country will be more crucial to reducing global emissions.
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Despite agreeing to do so at the last global climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, the Chinese government has not published an updated set of 2022 emission reduction commitments.
Amid diplomatic tensions with the United States, Chinese officials suspended dialogue in early August between the two countries. on climate targets.
United States The United States is by far the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases and remains one of the largest when measured per capita.
This year, the Biden administration passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which included the largest infusion of federal funds the country has ever made into carbon-free energy initiatives.
The act is expected to significantly reduce U.S. emissions, but not enough to fully meet the commitment to cut emissions at least in half by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.
Because of the country’s huge role in greenhouse gas emissions and its dominant position in the world’s largest lending institutions, many others expect the U.S. government to play a leadership role in both setting ambitious emissions reduction targets and helping historically smaller and poorer nations adapt to the destabilizing effects of global climate change.
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European Union
Of the world’s largest emitters, the European Union has been most affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which fundamentally altered the global market for fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal, the burning of which generates most of the world’s emissions.
In the short term, most of the 27 constituent countries of the European Union have been scrambling to find new sources of fuel as part of efforts to reduce overdependence on Russian supplies.
Germany, for example, has increased coal mining and coal imports to shore up energy reserves ahead of winter, when consumption increases.
European countries are now facing record energy prices, some of which have fallen on consumers, prompting demands for quick fixes.
European leaders have put forward a plan to dramatically increase investment in renewable energy infrastructure.
Imports of solar panels are soaring.
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Electric heat pumps are replacing gas in European homes at a record pace.
The European Union is already far ahead of other major emitters in its transition from fossil fuels to renewables and is the closest of the big four to achieving its emissions reduction commitments.
India
India, like most developing countries, has not announced a specific timetable for reaching its emissions peak.
Its leaders say it should not be required to do so, given how little it has contributed to historical emissions and how much it needs to develop its economy to lift hundreds of millions of citizens out of poverty.
India’s emissions are rising steadily, though nowhere near the rate at which China did during its decades of rapid development.
Like China, India has relied heavily on coal for fuel, although it has also been investing in large-scale renewable projects.
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This year, India modified its emissions reduction commitments, but did not change its 2070 target date for achieving net-zero emissions, the term used to indicate when a country cancels out its greenhouse gases through emissions cuts and measures to remove them from the atmosphere. such as protecting forests that absorb and store carbon dioxide.
Projections show that India’s emissions will exceed those of the European Union sometime next year.
They also show that India’s population exceeds that of China.
India’s per capita emissions rate is very low:
Less than half that of the European Union and less than one-third that of China.
