Wave of nearshoring to Mexico limited by energy policy
Contradiction? While Treasury and Economy officials see nearshoring as an investment panacea for the country to boost growth that cannot be wasted, the government’s own energy policy has put its foot in its mouth, limiting expectations.
Nearshoring, or the relocation of companies to countries close to the markets they seek to reach, is on the lips of the public and private sector as the “golden opportunity” to further boost the manufacturing industry, the most important in the country, as geopolitics pushes companies to optimize their supply chains to reach the large U.S. market. Mexico is strategically positioned for that purpose.
Bank of America has published that nearshoring represents a “unique opportunity” for Mexico. Before being relieved of his post, the former Undersecretary of Industry and Commerce, Héctor Guerrero, said that Mexico could have “the regret of a lifetime” if it did not take advantage of the historic opportunity that was born after the pandemic to boost the arrival of foreign companies to the country, something that “would not happen twice”.
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According to estimates by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Mexico would be the country that would obtain the most profits from nearshoring in Latin America, with the potential to attract up to 35.3 billion dollars in investments per year.
In October alone, according to the Second Edition of Credit Suisse’s Nearshoring Tracker, it identified at least 20 investment announcements in Mexico related to nearshoring with an approximate value of 2.05 billion dollars.
The government’s hopes regarding nearshoring are not exclusive to the ex-official, but have been shared by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) as well as by the new head of the SE, Raquel Buenrostro, who assured that “we have a list, there are just over 400 companies that want to locate here in Mexico” with which meetings will be held to learn about their plans to set up in the country.
However, for some analysts, the statements made by public officials regarding the supposed “cascade” of investments due to nearshoring, come up against policies -such as the one in the energy sector- that have raised barriers to the arrival of productive capital.
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“Mexico is not prepared for this wave as it has not invested enough in the electricity sector, and U.S. companies that do not have a presence in Mexico are resisting. The current North American Trade Agreement (NAFTA) dispute between Mexico and the US/Canada is a testament to some of the concerns expressed by international FDI investors in Mexico,” says investment bank Morgan Stanley in its study Mexico’s Nearshoring Challenges and Opportunities Amid a New Era of Geopolitics.
In the study, Morgan Stanley estimates Mexico’s export growth potential at US$155 billion over the next five years.
However, the intention to concentrate the generation and supply of energy in the state-owned Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) has become the main limitation for the arrival of new companies seeking to relocate in Mexico, a situation that is being resolved within the T-MEC and that poses uncertainties for the immediate future.
The country’s industrial parks association has already spoken out in this regard to request that the CFE guarantee a sufficient supply of electricity, particularly in the states receiving investments derived from the relocation. Sergio Argüelles González, president of the Mexican Association of Private Industrial Parks (AMPIP), said that the petitions “are moving forward”; while, recently, President López Obrador gave signs of looking for some alternatives by presenting the “Sonora Plan”, with which Mexico would be integrated to the North American electric car production chain, promoting the generation of solar energy in the north of the country through 5 new plants.
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But it is in the regulatory and legislative arena where energy uncertainty could affect the investment plans of companies interested in coming to Mexico, especially if the dispute with the United States has repercussions on the trade relationship.
“While the constitutional legal framework of the 2014 Energy Reform remains largely intact, most of the factors limiting energy investments relate to specific laws, which are often contested in domestic federal courts, international tribunals or dispute resolution mechanisms, such as trade panels and in-country tribunals. T-MEC,” the Morgan Stanley study added.
Currently Mexico’s dispute with its T-MEC partners remains in negotiations before escalating to a dreaded “panel,” a dispute settlement mechanism contemplated in the T-MEC through which the United States and Canada would have the right to claim multi-billion dollar compensation or impose tariffs on key Mexican products, if the outcome favors them.
Secretary Buenrostro recently said that the outcome of the negotiations with the U.S. will be announced in December, without giving further details.
